The phone rings at 4.45pm as you are approving wages, ordering stock and chasing two overdue invoices. A regular wants a rush job before Labour Weekend. A new customer has work ready now, but only on lengthy payment terms. The diary has room for one.
A cash-flow forecast estimates when money comes in and goes out, and seasonal patterns can help shape it.
Owners often price a job by revenue and direct cost, then treat the rest as manageable. The quieter cost sits in timing. Materials may be due this week, wages next week, and hired gear on delivery, while your invoice lands at month-end and payment trails behind. A busy schedule can still leave cash uncomfortably tight.
Capacity has a price
When the calendar is already tight, a low-margin rush job rarely stays low-margin. It can push overtime, split crews, delay invoicing on existing work and turn minor rework into a Friday-night problem. Those are commercial choices with real consequences for service, quality and management attention.
Suppose you are choosing between a $12,000 job needing upfront materials and payment after completion, and a $9,000 job that fits spare capacity and allows staged invoicing under the agreed terms. The smaller figure may leave you stronger by late November because it asks less of cash and people at the same time.
That is why a simple filter helps before you say yes. Check expected margin, cash timing and calendar strain together. If one is weak, tighten the scope, extend the lead time, or structure milestones for new work so the payment pattern better matches the work pattern. If the job still bends the next six weeks out of shape, passing can be the disciplined choice, using your usual lawful selection criteria consistently.
October and November are a good time to rehearse that discipline before summer. Review last year’s pinch points: the jobs that soaked up management time, the customers who paid slowly, the weeks when stock, wages and tax clustered together. Build those patterns into the next forecast, then use them when you decide which enquiries deserve a prompt yes.
A full order book can flatter the eye. Cash arriving in the right week, on work your team can deliver well, gives you room to keep standards up when the season starts to accelerate.
